本文摘要：Investors in Tencent Holdings, China’s internet gaming and social media group, have reason to feel anxious leading into Wednesday’s scheduled fourth-quarter earnings announcement.中国互联网游戏和社交媒体集团——腾讯控股(Tencent Holdings)的投资者在第4季度业绩报告周三发布前夕有理由深感情绪。

Investors in Tencent Holdings, China’s internet gaming and social media group, have reason to feel anxious leading into Wednesday’s scheduled fourth-quarter earnings announcement.中国互联网游戏和社交媒体集团——腾讯控股(Tencent Holdings)的投资者在第4季度业绩报告周三发布前夕有理由深感情绪。After watching its stock price shoot upwards for the better part of a year, in the process making its chairman, Pony Ma, the richest man in China in January, Tencent last week got hit by twin blows. Its shares on Friday lost 3 per cent after the central bank suspended Tencent’s virtual credit card (along with that of rival Alibaba), along with QR code scanning apps for mobile payments.去年大部分时间里，腾讯的股价都在下跌，使其董事局主席马化腾(Pony Ma)在今年1月沦为中国首富。但腾讯上周受到了双重压制。首先，中国央行宣告停止腾讯及其竞争对手阿里巴巴(Alibaba)的虚拟世界信用卡业务和用作移动支付的二维码扫瞄应用于，随后，腾讯股价在上周五暴跌了3%。

Secondly, on Thursday night more than three dozen public accounts – essentially blogs – hosted by WeChat, Tencent’s hottest offering, were hit by the first wave of large-scale censorship – 35-40 such blogs were summarily deleted.其次，上周四晚的第一波大规模审查中，腾讯最热门的服务——微信(WeChat)上的数十个公共账号（基本上就是博客）遭打压，35至40个这样的公共账号被乘势移除。The fear is that WeChat, which was thought to be less exposed to censorship than rival Weibo, could attract the same scrutiny which has driven away Weibo users amid a campaign against “rumour mongering”.人们担忧的是，原本被指出比其输掉新浪微博(Weibo)较较少受到审查的微信，有可能惹来同等程度的审查——在一场压制“传播谣言”的运动中，审查已造成新浪微博的用户萎缩。The key areas for scrutiny in the announcement are:对于腾讯的业绩报告，关键的注目领域如下：Financial regulation: The central bank has yet to fully explain its reasoning on the credit card fiasco last week. And Tencent and Alibaba have yet to clear the air themselves. So how did this happen, one day after the announcement? Did someone forget to tell the central bank that they were issuing the virtual credit cards? Did the central bank change its mind? Or does the regulatory process for issuing a credit card in China not include the central bank? Citic bank, which was the actual issuer, has said it followed procedures. Analysts say darkly that the problem may be with Unionpay, the government bank card monopoly. Investors are hoping for some clarity from Tencent on what went wrong.金融监管：中国央行仍未详尽说明上周停止虚拟世界信用卡业务的理由。

腾讯和阿里巴巴本身也仍未回应这件事。在宣告发售服务一天后就被取消，这样的灾难究竟是如何再次发生的？是有人忘了告诉他央行他们发售的将是虚拟世界信用卡吗？是中国央行转变了点子？还是在中国发售信用卡的监管流程不关口央行的事？虚拟世界信用卡的实际发行人中信银行(Citic Bank)回应，其走完了涉及程序。

分析师们阴沉地回应，问题有可能出有在具备政府背景的银行卡独占公司——中国银联(Unionpay)身上。投资者期望腾讯对问题出有在哪里作出一些回应。WeChat: Tencent’s instant messaging service is the hottest thing in Chinese internet, with 271m users. Because it is primarily used on phones, it is the main reason Tencent is regarded as being in the strongest position for the arrival of the mobile internet in China. It is also thought to be less exposed to scrutiny by the authorities because the maximum size of a chat group is capped. But the deleting of political blogs last week may mean it too is not immune from the heavy hand of Chinese censors. Rival Weibo has lost users following a half-year-long campaign against “rumour mongering” on the internet. As a result, Weibo says it is growing at its slowest rate in its five-year history, and some reckon its user base may be falling. If the same were to happen to WeChat, it could hurt Tencent’s plans for the mobile internet.微信：腾讯这款即时通讯服务是中国互联网领域最炙手可热的应用于，用户数量超过2.71亿。

由于微信主要是在手机上用于的，这出了腾讯被视作在中国移动互联网时代到来之际占有最不利方位的主要原因。另外，腾讯也被指出受到当局审查的程度较低，因为其聊天群的人数规模是有下限的。

但上周一批政治类公共账号被打压指出，微信逃不过中国审查机构的高压管制。在已持续半年的压制网上“传播谣言”的运动中，竞争对手新浪微博的用户经常出现萎缩。其结果是，新浪微博回应，目前其用户增长速度正处于5年历史中的最低水平，有些人指出其用户基础有可能在增加。如果微信再次发生某种程度事情，有可能伤害腾讯的移动互联网计划。

Gaming business: Most of Tencent’s cash comes from gaming. Expect an update on revenues from Leagues of Legend and solid growth of WeChat games including Dungeon Fighter and Crossfire, and Blade and Soul.游戏业务：这是腾讯主要的现金收益来源。预计公司将发布“英雄联盟”(Leagues of Legend)收益的近期数据，同时“地下城与勇士”(Dungeon Fighter)、“穿过火线”(Crossfire)和“剑灵”(Blade and Soul)等微信游戏经常出现强大快速增长。Earnings: These are the least of Tencent’s worries – driven by cash from games, Tencent is the most cash-rich of the three internet conglomerates in China. The Bloomberg consensus is total revenues of Rmb16.62bn and net profit of Rmb4.17bn.利润：这是腾讯最不忧虑的地方。

在游戏收益的反对下，腾讯已沦为中国三大互联网集团中现金最丰沛的一家。彭博(Bloomberg)的共识预测表明，腾讯总收入约166.2亿元人民币，其中净利润约41.7亿元人民币。

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